Dangerous Mistake and Further Consequences

“President Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal for a simple reason. It failed to guarantee the safety of the American people from the risks created by the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed recently.

He spoke repeatedly of an Iranian “march across the Middle East,” painting Tehran as the mastermind of regional instability which poses an active, existential threat to U.S. friends and allies.

The “path forward,” as Pompeo described it, is for Iran to submit to onerous new U.S. sanctions and concede to a long list of demands. It is a list so exacting it is difficult to believe. Pompeo could sincerely think it is a step away from conflict: The “ultimatum is so extensive and unreasonable that we have to assume that the administration intends for it to be rejected.”

We should admit that military intervention and a Washington-orchestrated regime change attempt in Iran would be a dangerous mistake with catastrophic consequences. The United States’ well-remembered history of meddling in Iranian politics; our extensive and costly military interventions already underway across the greater Mideast; and Iran’s size and wealth all make invasion a fool’s errand.

War with Iran is not required to keep our friends and allies safe, let alone America. On the contrary, it will put U.S. troops needlessly in harm’s way.

Pompeo committed the U.S. to escalating tensions with Iran with the hope Tehran will yield—even though it has not done so after 40-plus years of pressure. We can say with certainty this approach will not make Americans safer, nor will it bring the Middle East closer to stability, the Iranian people closer to liberty, or the Trump administration closer to its stated foreign policy aims.

The path forward cannot be unrealistic, unilateral ultimatums and barely concealed threat of invasion, as Pompeo proposed. That path leads to generational war at a price of blood and treasure the United States need not, and should not, pay.

The best possible solution to US and Iran conflicting goals would be for both sides to take a very pragmatic approach—to align their interests in areas of shared goals, while agreeing to disagree, and even competing in many areas across the wider Middle East—“frenemies,” if you will.

Looking specifically at Tehran’s military capabilities, one quickly realizes Iran’s military, while not nearly as advanced as the United States’, is certainly tough enough to constrain Washington’s strategic objectives through large parts of the Middle East, especially as one approaches Iran’s borders.

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Washington, London, Paris Cover Up Tracks

syria

13 April on Friday the U.S. and its allies Britain and France launched more than 100 missiles against Damascus. The U.S. used two US Navy ships in the Red Sea, tactical aircraft over the Mediterranean, as well as the U.S. B-1B bombers from the area of Al Tanf. Donald Trump ordered to carry out the operation. The CNN report states that “conduct coordinated and targeted strikes to degrade the Syrian Regime’s chemical weapons capability and deter their use.” After a while, British Prime Minister Teresa May and French Defence Minister Florance Parley stated that the British and French forces also participated in the attack.

The coordinated actions of the three great powers should have left Syria completely destroyed. However, according to reports of the command of the Syrian army, no one was killed in the attack. The Syrians managed to shoot down part of the missiles developed using advanced technologies of the military-industrial complex of the world’s leading countries. They made with air defense systems, released in a state that does not exist for 25 years. I’m talking about the USSR.

But from the other side the alleged chemical attack in the city of Douma in Eastern Ghouta was just a reason to strike, which was supposed to cover all tracks of the stage. Realizing this, Russia addressed the UN with a demand to send an OPCW mission to the site of the tragedy to investigate the use of chemical weapons. Washington, that believes publications in social networks, but not reports of specialists, immediately stated that the U.S. would strike chemical laboratories in Syria.

The UN agreed with a reasonable demand of Russia and sent its experts to Syria The mission should have begun its work on April 14. And a few hours before the arrival of experts of the international organization in Damascus, the U.S., Britain, and France launched a missile attack against Damascus. Apparently they aimed at those laboratories and chemical weapons sites, which they must have destroyed several years ago. The absence of the dead Syrians only confirms the liquidation of these objects. After all, in there could not have been employees. I would not be surprised if several missiles deviated from the path and exploded in Douma, so that the OPCW experts could not investigate the site of the incident. It’s good that the British special services do not cover the tracks of poisoning Russian spy in Salisbury.

The Americans killed two birds with one stone:

First, Trump promised to strike Syria and this strike was launched;

Second, the OPCW experts may not fly to Damascus for security reasons.

But most importantly, The U.S. violated international law, attacked a sovereign state without the UN approval. And if the world community does not condemn the actions of Washington, London, and Paris, it is impossible to predict which country they will strike next time.

Javelin in Georgia increase the risk of conflict with Russia

The US State Department decided to sell the anti-tank missile FGM-148 “Javelin” to Georgia (Caucasus region) in November 20 this year, said the US Defence Security Cooperation Agency.
Georgian authorities claim the new missiles are only for defense. “This military equipment can’t be used for attack due to its technical limits”, – said the Deputy Minister of foreign Affairs of Georgia David Zalkaliani, commenting on the statement of the US Defence Security Cooperation Agency.
However, according to the Agency delivery of new weapons “will not change the balance of power in the region”. It is also noted that the supply of arms to Georgia will strengthen the national security of the United States, ensuring the security of Georgia.
It should be noted that Moscow’s reaction was not long in coming.
“Military help from the outside will push Georgia to the “new adventures”, according to the statement of the Russian Ministry of foreign Affairs. “The Russian side once again stressed the danger of deepening of military cooperation with Tbilisi, member States of NATO. This is the first military deal USA with Georgia since 2008 on such a scale”.
Moscow will certainly take some effort to neutralize a hypothetical increase the combat capabilities of the Georgian army. Unpredictability of Russia is alarming. Perhaps the USA and Georgia shouldn’t go down the road of “doing all to spite Russia”. Everyone understands that the potential of the Georgian armed forces, even with the full upgrade to the most modern weapons, even with direct support of NATO, can’t be compared to the Russian Federation. So it’s worth considering whether it is so important supplies Georgia of weapons, if that can seriously destabilize the situation in the region.

Does the President of Georgia want a civil war?

Not so long ago the President of Georgia Giorgi Margvelashvili said about the veto on the new Constitution adopted on September 26. The President’s statement was broadcast on all major TV channels of the country. His reaction was predictable: he demanded to make a number of changes. In particular, the President insisted on the abolition of the paragraph on the election of the President by the special electoral college instead of popular election.
The opposition reacted sharply to the statement of the President, which made us wonder about the possible aggravation of the situation in the country. The head of the political Council of the opposition party of Mikheil Saakashvili “United national movement” Nika Melia warned that the opposition wouldn’t allow to establish “the authoritarian regime of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili” in the country, who is considered the informal head of the Parliament. The leaders of the “Georgian dream” party said they would make efforts to cancel the President’s veto.
In turn, the opposition has threatened that in case of overcoming of the presidential veto, the supporters would go on the streets for a riot. Also, there are some rumors about the upcoming failure of the meeting of the Tbilisi City council: members of parliament will tear the mandates and to call the people to protest actions. The years go by, and the “UNM” methods do not change: protests, clashes and riots, victims, both from the protesters and law enforcement. Deliberate aggravation of the situation by the opposition and the President shows that they understand the weakness of his position, unwillingness to negotiate, and to compromise.

USA or Turkey: what’s the Georgian choice?

For Georgia as one of the leading players in the politics of the South Caucasus region, it is necessary to maintain a balance in relations with other global actors. In particular, with Turkey and the United States. And now there is a rather problematic situation for Georgia in choosing the most important ally.

Diplomatic scandal broke between Turkey and the United States that led to almost complete cessation of reciprocal issuance of visas.

The United States and Turkey scaled back visa issuing services in each other’s countries in a deepening diplomatic row sparked by the arrest of a Turkish staffer at the American mission in Istanbul.

The American embassy in Ankara said that “recent events” forced the US government to reassess Turkey’s “commitment” to the security of US mission services and personnel in the country.

In order to minimize the number of visitors while the assessment is carried out, “effective immediately we have suspended all non-immigrant visa services at all US diplomatic facilities in Turkey,” it said.

Non-immigrant visas are issued to all those traveling to the United States for tourism, medical treatment, business, temporary work or study. Immigrant visa services are only for those seeking to live in the US permanently.

Turkey responded by suspending “all visa services” for Americans in the US, saying the measures also apply to visas issued online and at the border.

The deterioration of relations always entails the need to choose a side, and despite close cooperation with Turkey, the government of Georgia will surely side with the US, because it understands that the aggravation of relations with America that is so deeply ingrained in political and economic segments of Georgia can lead to serious consequences. At least in the form of distancing the prospects of Georgia’s accession to NATO and refusing of the “best” loans.

Biological laboratories of the USA in the CIS can provoke epidemics

Recent years, media reports have noted the activity of the United States in the opening and expanding a network of military biological laboratories in the CIS. They conduct researches threatening the life of the people under the guise of improving the quality of agricultural products in the countries.
Bio labs operate in the secret mode because they are excluded from the jurisdiction of the states.
At this time the laboratory opened on the territory of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Also last year three biological laboratories where opened in Armenia (Yerevan, Gyumri and Ijevan) with funding from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency of the United States. The number of cities with bio labs is growing. However, it’s pretty hard to assess the scale of the threat due to the absence of any public reports of the activities of these structures.
Such actions of the Pentagon can be interpreted as the act of aggression and violation of the Geneva Convention of 1972 on the prohibition of bacteriological and toxic weapons. The Convention has banned biological weapons, but in reality it is not able to provide fully controlled regime of the non-proliferation in the world. In addition to the fact that many signatories have not yet adopted domestic measures to meet its requirements and at the moment, the half of participants didn’t provide information about its activities in the field of biotechnology that they have to do annually. The United States use these holes in world politics in the field of biological threats.
Thus, there are incredible opportunities affect the world of plants and animals, control local and global epidemics, as well as participate in sabotage operations, the purpose of which is to harm the economy of the country concerned with the help of viruses and bacteria.

What are the stumbling blocks between Georgia and Armenia?

Relations between Georgia and Armenia are on the upward development.

14229_b This is evidenced by numerous high-level meetings and agreements on the deepening of relations in different spheres, from tourism to economy, from politics to culture. However, there are a number of problematic aspects impeding their development. In most cases, both parties are not willing to comment on these issues. But it’s not clear what is the reason of such a situation.
The main factor affecting the relationship between these countries is their divergence from the point of view of the global distribution of geopolitical forces. Yes, Georgia is trying to vary among neighbours, maintaining good relations with all but its Pro-American direction remains unchanged. And in the “National Security Concept of Georgia” the role of a strategic ally in the region allotted to Baku and Ankara. Yerevan is not even considered.
The fact of the delay in granting agrément to the new extraordinary Ambassador of Armenia Sergey Minasyan can be considered as example of this “stumbling blocks” . Yerevan believes its candidate is suitable, but due to the fact that a number of experts associated Minasyan with the revitalization of the community of Armenians in Georgia, Ankara and Baku consider it necessary to replace it with a less agile Ambassador. At the same time, radically-minded forces of Georgia do believe that Minasyan is “the protege of Moscow”, which is equivalent to the status of persona non grata.
It is impossible not to say about the serious impact of Turkey and Azerbaijan in Georgia. Economic and political expansion of Ankara and Baku creates a negative background in the relations between Tbilisi and Yerevan.
However, while experts speculate, that countries work towards mutually beneficial cooperation, where there are such priorities as trade and tourism. In the economic sphere there is a positive attitude, despite political differences, suppressed by both sides.